Gear Chat: Is Cable TV on the way out?
Posted on 10 January 2009, at 7:47 am, by Joel McLaughlin
A week or two ago during the Christmas to New Years span,Viacom and Time Warner had a dispute that’s now resolved. However, as things usually do happen on our team member list, things go into another topic. Wayne kicked it off with this message:
Wayne Schulz: In 5 years the concept of a cable tv box is going to be quaint. The vast majority will come via on-line. This the foreshadowing.
I thought….hmm….is that really true? Other team members chimed in:
Christopher Gavula: I agree. I already use my Internet connection (via cable) far more
than my cable tv services for my viewing. I use the online services more and more everyday and suspect others, especially younger folk, use them even more.
Joel McLaughlin: When people get fed up with this crap AND it’s made easier to put the online content on your TV. We’re not there yet. I give it more like 10-20. The reason being is there are people like my parents who JUST got broadband and digital cable and don’t have any idea why they may need a router with wifi yet even though dad says he wants a Wii which has a lot of online features too. This afternoon I intend to SHOW THEM why they might want a router!
Wayne Schulz:
I just went through my Sling.com setup.
I can watch my cable TV from any Internet Explorer browser with a fast connection.
The link to my BlackBerry is quite impressive too.
Sling also seem to have figured out how to make the remote work a lot easier.
Tell me again why the cable companies are needed to deliver tv? Believe me that is going away in 5 years. All the cable companies will do is provide bandwidth.
Joel McLaughlin:
Because of luddite like my parents. We’re jaded because we’re the tech elite. My Dad is just now discovering YouTube and I will show him Hulu when we get back from lunch/shopping.
Christopher Gavula:
Yeah but things like Flickr and YouTube are already being built into devices like the AppleTV and others and I just read about that DVD player that is including YouTube and some online movie service support. Nah – I think that it’s more like only 5 years. We’re just
going to wake up one day and wonder what happened to the cable box. Cable carriers are going to be like home phone service – eventually they will be just about carrying bandwidth – services will be gotten elsewhere. They all recognized this trend years ago which is why the wireless cell carriers (which are often the same companies) push content so hard – content is where the money is.
Joel McLaughln:
Lessee…Apple TV is only HD. What is HD penetration?
10 years. 5 for us…10 for everyone else.
Christopher Gavula:
AppleTV is HD only, but the DVD player I mentioned is not.
Also keep in mind that the iTunes Music store went from inception to the #1 music retailer in the world in only 5 years. These markets aren’t driven by our parents, but rather our children.
Finally Chris Spera chimes in…
Christopher Spera:
I agree that the TV as we know it will eventually fade away; but until things like cable card or other signal decoding thingies are generic and easily available (i.e. cheap and purchasable, not leased via a service provider) I think we’re going to continue to have issues. I just looked at my cable bill for last month, and I’m getting charged a fee for the package I have (Comcast Triple Play) and then for the delivery of that service. Something isn’t right, and it feels like I’m getting double charged; but I’ve been over it with them millions of times…
This supports your “content is king” concept, as the only two products they really have are bandwidth and content…God knows their service simply sucks…
So who is right? I think we all are in some way. Content is king and the cable companies who provide the services may not just be content being service providers. Even our cellular companies are guilty of this with Verizon and it’s V-cast and Sprint and it’s service.
Eventually, Cable TV will probably cease to exist in it’s current format but will Joe sixpack be ready?
My parents use their computer for e-mail, word processing and the occasional IM or YouTube video. Beyond that, they just don’t understand the concept of digital media yet. I am slowly assimilating my Dad!
So cable will go away, but will it be 5 years? 10 years? It’s anyone’s guess. There is one thing that a lot of people haven’t thought of. At one time, there was something else that was supposed to go away, but is still here: That’s analog radio. For now, there’s no scheduled cut off for that. AM radio has been around for over 80 years. Cable TV will probably be around in 5-10 years, but will our children use it??
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January 10th, 2009 at 3:00 am
I already download content more than rent it on DVD due to the instant nature of the results.
Hollywood is doing themselves a disservice keeping the DVD "Window" open. Its the same issue as there was fighting the likes of iTunes (or even VHS rentals back in the day)
Once you can get hi-def movies right after they are out of theaters (legitimately
) there will be mass move away from DVD's and even blu-ray.
Its already rediculous that many Blu-Ray disks release a month or more after DVD? What do they expect, you'll buy both? There aren't that many Dark Knight movies out there for that
January 10th, 2009 at 3:52 am
I live on the edge of civilization, so my paltry 1.5Mb broadband connection runs about $40/month. That in mind, I refuse to drop another $40 or so per month on video content via satellite provider. If I'm watching it, I got it either online, from the antenna, or from a quaint, shiny, little round disc that's promptly ripped to the home network and then begins it's life anew as a dust collector.
January 10th, 2009 at 4:26 am
They're going to go away (for me definitely) and its just a matter of time. I refuse to justify paying the ridiculous prices they want for digital cable and when they finally determine they're shutting off basic cable I'm done. The real big problem I have with cable is that even if there's 100 channels, there's nothing on. The only channels that do a decent job of content are the major networks during prime time and I can get all of their shows online a day later anyway.
January 10th, 2009 at 4:34 am
Hmmm… Since I just went to work for Australia's version of Comcast, I'm hoping that you're estimates are incorrect..
January 10th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
I agree that cable TV as we know it will change dramatically eventually, but I believe it is entrenched enough to last for quite a while longer. The fraction of the population getting most of their content via data connections is still small (us early adopter types.) I know a lot of folks still resisting even a digital cable box.
Some day we’ll have pipeline providers and content providers and they won’t be so entertwined. As high speed wireless becomes ubiquitous satellite TV and satellite radio will become irrelevent also.
January 11th, 2009 at 2:42 am
I just don't think it's there yet. First, there's the broadband restrictions. Providers don't like downloaders of even legal material. Finally, there's the 7-8 million people who Barack Obama wants to push the digital transition back for. The world just isn't ready for this. What I do know is I too listen to and watch more content from the net than TV in general.
January 12th, 2009 at 2:54 am
One of the best things about being a part of this team is things like this Chat. We need to do more of these…