It has the makings of a perfect storm and it is headed right toward US iPhone users. It isn’t going to be pretty.

A perfect storm occurs when a number of elements all converging at a single time. That is what is happening to US iPhone users and they/we need to be ready to get soaked as a result.

Element 1- The NYTimes reports that 40% of AT&T’s data traffic comes from just 3% of its smartphone users- almost all of them are toting an iPhone. This is no surprise since we have been hearing about iPhone users consuming tons of data but the fact that the trend continues… and is growing…

Element 2- AT&T’s network stinks. This too is nothing new but it doesn’t seem to be getting any better. I drop calls ALL THE TIME! In fact, there is one spot between home and work where I will hang up on a call and then call back a few minutes later. Why? Because it is all but guaranteed that if I don’t hang up the call will be lost anyway. And I’m not alone. ALL my friends on AT&T report the same thing. Seriously, the only reason many of us are still with AT&T is that they have exclusive rights to the iPhone in the US.

Mix in the increased demand places on the network by those of us toting an iPhone and you have a network that just can’t keep up. Sure, AT&T is adding 2,000 cell sites but it seems likely they need a lot more than that. And yes, they released a Mark The Spot app that lets iPhone users report problem areas but I can’t help that this just feels like a PR ploy to say “We care… we really really care” when they really mean  “We don’t care, we don’t have to. We’re the Phone Company.”

Element 3: AT&T is already trailing all of her competitors in customer satisfaction. If you have ever had to deal with AT&T’s customer service this is, by far, the LEAST surprising element in this post. When I briefly dealt with T-Mobile a few months ago I could see what it might be like to deal with a company that actually values its customers. And just today Carly (who is sporting a brand new Droid) emailed me… “Can I tell you how great my experience was at VZW? They set everything up, they had a guy come over JUST to show me how to use the phone, they made me feel like someone there cared.”

I have NEVER heard anyone say that about their experience with AT&T. When it comes to customer satisfaction there is no competition. AT&T LOSES! And while last place is not pleasant there is one benefit… there is nowhere to go but up.

You know what… make that two benefits. Since it also means people are already unhappy doing something to tick them off will just make them a bit more of what they already were. And this is where the potential issue comes into the picture.

AT&T’s service already stinks and it is only getting worse. The network is already getting crushed by iPhone users and it is only getting worse. Mix in the fact that the company doesn’t have to be worried about slipping in popularity (since they are already at the bottom) and you have a company that needs to find a way to curtail the huge drain iPhone users are placing on the network and has little to lose in the process. So what if they tick off some iPhone users in the process of fixing things? If people still want an iPhone they will take whatever AT&T throws at them.

So what options does AT&T have?

Option A- Raise the price of the iPhone data plan. The problem is, while most iPhone users will suck it up and pay what they have to this won’t actually do anything to make the situation better. Data hogs will still keep chugging along.

Option B- Start making tiered data plans similar to the plans for voice minutes. This will get complaints from customers but they will still suck it up. Again, however, it won’t really solve things since the heavy users will just get more ticked at AT&T but then suck it up and pay for the upper tier.

Option C- Have one price for data up to a certain point and then have an ala carte price that places a hefty price on additional data-usage that is high enough that users will think twice about going over the cap.

Unless I am missing Option D the third option is the only real solution for solving the data crunch on AT&T’s network. And if we don’t see it in the next months there is no doubt that AT&T will use the release of the next iPhone as an opportunity to change the structure of the data plans they offer.And that timing makes sense. As Carly put it- “While people are focused on their shiny new toy they will be less apt to notice the big fish hook on the side.”

I can guarantee getting rid of unlimited data plans will help in one small way. You see if they go this route they will free up all the data I currently use on my iPhone. Why? Because I’ll pay the cancellation fee and move on. Call me spoiled but there is NO WAY I’m going to start having to worry about/keep an eye on my data usage and/or pay huge overage fees if I am actually using my device. If it comes to that.. I’m done.