photo credit: benleto
photo credit: ClockworkGrue

I’ll make this short and sweet…

Last week, at least according to the best estimates we can make, Apple sold about 25,000 iPads per hour. According to CrunchGear the number was about 120,000 pre-orders in the first day alone. That’s pretty impressive. Then again, as many of you have read elsewhere already, the original iPhone had no pre-order but sold 200,000 units the first day and the iPhone 3GS apparently saw “hundreds of thousands” of pre-orders.

So what does this tell us about the fortunes of the iPad?

NOT A THING!

Seriously, the numbers that we have for iPad sales tells us nothing about whether or not the device will be a hit. Here’s why.

Number One- This is a new category of device for most people

When people first saw the iPhone they were like

“Wow, nice looking phone and… OMG OMG I can’t believe it can do that! And OMG OMG it does THAT too!”

The iPhone arrived in familiar waters and then moved everything into new territory. It made its own case… and then some.

Not so the iPad. The iPad is entering pretty much uncharted waters, and it still needs to make its case. eBooks are just coming into their own. Tablet computers never made a real mark. And UMPCs and MIDS?? Don’t make me laugh. The iPad comes into a space that is largely unfamiliar to most people. As a result, it needs to make its place in a way the iPhone never did.

Stated a bit differently, the iPhone “only” had the task of showing that it was the best smartphone available while the iPad needs to prove the utility of this kind of device. If it does make the case the numbers will skyrocket. If it doesn’t, we’re looking at the Newton 2.

Number Two- The iPad is currently a “luxury device”

The iPhone is a phone, and pretty much everyone has a cellphone phone nowadays. Sure, it was an amazing leap forward, but it was a leap forward in a device that was already ubiquitous. (Yes, it may be funny to say it, but nowadays you “need” a cell phone if you’re going to be involved in the world.) As a result, for many people the case for the iPhone included such thoughts as

“My contract is up next month and I needed a new phone anyway. Maybe I’ll try this iPhone thing.”

The original iPhone (and to a lesser degree the current offerings) were the luxury level of something that people already had. As a result the iPhone was just an “up-sell” on something they would have bought regardless.

The iPad, on the other hand, is a luxury item. Period. It is a ‘tweener device that sits between two other devices that the people to whom the iPad is marketed already have. Stated differently, if you have an iPhone (or any other smartphone for that matter) and a notebook computer you’re all set. You don’t NEED an iPad. Yet…

If the iPad it a hit, if content moves to it the way I suspect it will and if a slew of great apps that make it a true notebook alternative are released, the case for having an iPad will become stronger. Right now however the only reason to have an iPad is because… we WANT one.

If the iPad makes its case as a useful “must-have” device however, it will move a bit out of the pure “want” category. If it does the numbers will skyrocket. If it doesn’t we’re truly looking at the Newton 2.

Number Three- I’ve said it before… we need a bit of patience on this one

I stated a few weeks back that I believe people need to take a longer view on this device. I stand by that. This new device is remarkable. It is a new category of device. It takes the tablet form factor to an entirely new level. That’s the great thing. But it’s going to take some time before we really have a sense of what it can do.

This first version is a bit limited. We all know that. It isn’t shipping with OS iPhone 4.0, so it comes out of the gate with the same limitations as the iPhone or touch. It doesn’t have a camera, and the number of iPad-specific apps available at launch will be relatively small. (I do, however, have it on good authority that while the numbers will be small there will be some amazing offerings from day one.)
OS iPhone 4.0 will make a huge difference on the iPad. As more developers release iPad-specific apps the device will become increasingly powerful. And the hardware update we will likely see in a year may add some missing features.

Like the iPod touch whose popularity skyrocketed after both the hardware and software saw an update after a year, the iPad will look like a different device a year from now. And the updates may make it more desirable than ever. If it does the numbers will skyrocket. If it doesn’t we’re truly looking at the Newton 2.

Number Four- Few have seen and even fewer have used one. Only crazy people like Judie, Larry and me are jumping off the cliff and buying sight-unseen

Imagine these two, mutually exclusive scenarios…

Scenario 1- The iPad sells 120,000 initially. It is released. It is awful. It goes the way of “Apple TV” and becomes the latest apple “hobby”.

Scenario 2- the iPad sells 120,000 units initially. The first reports are overwhelmingly positive. The early adopters love theirs and can’t talk about it enough. That prompts people to buy.

More books are released, the price is dropped a bit, awesome apps come out and, as a result, Apple sells even more. The new owners talk up the device as well. Then, just as momentum is growing to a fever pitch Christmas arrives. The iPad becomes the “it” gift and before 2010 sales blow away even the most optimistic numbers.

Two totally different outcomes and right now we don’t have a clue which is right. The former and we have the Newton 2. The latter and Steve Jobs is one happy man.

So what DO the initial pre-sales numbers tell us about the iPad’s fortunes?

NOTHING.

YET.